Leading in Uncertain Times

Everything Feels in Flux—And Leaders Are Caught in the Middle

Lately, in my work with leaders, I’ve seen a pattern: extremes. Some teams are shrinking overnight—experienced employees leaving, budgets cut, uncertainty everywhere. Others are stuck in survival mode, trying to keep people motivated when no one knows what the next quarter will bring. Many leaders tell me the same thing:

„I have to hold everything together, but I don’t know how long I can keep this up.“

Recently, a leader in the manufacturing sector told me: “I used to plan for the next three years. Now, I’m lucky if I know what next quarter will look like. My team is exhausted, and I don’t have the answers they need.” This isn’t just about managing change. It’s about leading when everything feels fragile. When the team is half the size, but expectations are the same. When every decision feels unpopular. When you’re supposed to be the stable one, but inside, you’re questioning everything.

So the real question isn’t just How do you lead through uncertainty?—it’s How do you stay grounded when everything around you is shifting?

BANI: A More Honest Way to Describe What’s Happening

For years, we used VUCA—volatility, uncertainty, complexity, ambiguity—to describe fast-changing environments. But that word feels outdated.

Leaders don’t just face „complexity“—they face fragility. Systems don’t just evolve—they break. That’s why BANI describes today’s reality better:

Brittle: The structures we relied on feel fragile. What worked yesterday might collapse tomorrow.
Anxious: People are on edge. Uncertainty fuels hesitation, self-doubt, and emotional exhaustion.
Nonlinear: The usual cause-and-effect logic no longer applies. Small changes create massive, unpredictable consequences.
Incomprehensible: Some things simply don’t make sense. Trying to force logic onto chaos drains energy.

A leader in the finance industry put it bluntly: “I used to pride myself on having a plan. Now, I feel like I’m steering in the fog, and my team is looking at me, expecting me to see the road.”

If VUCA called for better analysis, BANI calls for emotional and psychological resilience. Leadership today isn’t about controlling uncertainty—it’s about learning how to move through it without losing yourself.

"Optimism is invaluable for a meaningful life. With a firm belief in a positive future, you can redirect your energy toward making that future a reality."

Martin Seligman, Flourish

Stability Starts Within: Lessons from Flourish

Martin Seligman, the founder of positive psychology, has spent decades studying resilience. I was introduced to his work twelve years ago, and since then, it has shaped both my leadership approach and leadership training in many of the world’s most successful companies. One crucial insight? Resilience isn’t just about enduring hard times—it’s about thriving in them.

In Flourish, Seligman introduces the PERMA framework, which helps people build inner stability. Psychologist Markus Ebner developed a leadership model based on it and has conducted numerous studies to prove its impact on leadership.

Positive Emotions – Not forced optimism, but recognising what’s still working. Even in crises, acknowledging small wins shifts the energy.
Engagement – People handle uncertainty better when they feel deeply involved in meaningful work. What strengths can you activate—even now?
Relationships – Isolation breeds fear. Leaders who build trust and psychological safety give their teams a much-needed anchor.
Meaning – When people see the bigger picture, they handle setbacks better. What’s the deeper purpose behind what you’re doing?
Accomplishment – Progress matters, even in small steps. Leaders who highlight wins—however minor—help keep momentum alive.

PERMA helps leaders create a supporting culture, but even the best environment can’t replace the inner resilience needed to lead through uncertainty. That’s where Psychological Capital (PsyCap) and the HERO model come in.

Psychological Capital and the HERO Model

When working with leaders in uncertain times, I often notice a divide: Some seem to bend but never break, while others—despite experience and skill—struggle to keep moving forward. What makes the difference? It’s not just knowledge or strategy. It’s psychological strength.

That’s why I find Psychological Capital (PsyCap) valuable. Developed by Fred Luthans in 2004, PsyCap introduced the idea that psychological resources are just as critical as technical skills in leadership. A few years later, Luthans and his colleagues formalized and measured these resources in what became known as the HERO model (2007):

Hope – The ability to see paths forward and stay motivated despite obstacles.
Efficacy – Confidence in one’s ability to take action and influence outcomes.
Resilience – The capacity to recover from setbacks and keep going.
Optimism – A realistic but positive expectation for the future.

I’ve seen the impact firsthand. Leaders who cultivate hope and self-efficacy don’t just react to change—they shape it. Those who develop resilience and optimism don’t get stuck in survival mode—they inspire progress. But inner strength alone isn’t enough. Leaders don’t operate in isolation—their mindset influences their teams, their decisions shape culture, and their resilience (or lack of it) has a ripple effect. That’s where PERMA comes in.

„The quality of a leader is reflected in the standards they set for themselves.“ — Ray Kroc

HERO - Psychological Capital by Fred Luthans

How HERO and PERMA Work Together

If HERO builds personal resilience, PERMA creates the external conditions for a healthy leadership culture. A leader needs both.

HERO (Hope, Efficacy, Resilience, Optimism) strengthens the leader from within—helping them stay steady under pressure.
PERMA (Positive Emotions, Engagement, Relationships, Meaning, Accomplishment) ensures that the people around them have the environment they need to stay motivated and engaged.

When both models come together, something shifts:

Hope (HERO) → Positive Emotions (PERMA): Leaders who hold onto hope create an atmosphere of optimism.
Efficacy (HERO) → Engagement (PERMA): Confident leaders bring out deeper commitment and involvement in their teams.
Resilience (HERO) → Relationships (PERMA): Resilient leaders foster trust because people feel safe around them.
Optimism (HERO) → Meaning & Accomplishment (PERMA): Leaders who believe in progress help teams find purpose and celebrate achievements.

In my experience, the best is to find a way to balance inner resilience with creating the right environment for others. It’s never perfect, but when both are in place, leadership becomes more effective—and more sustainable.

A Practical Approach

I’ve worked with leaders who focus too much on one side—either building personal resilience but neglecting team culture, or creating a great team environment while burning out themselves. The strongest leadership happens when both are in balance.

Take care of yourself (HERO) → Take care of your team (PERMA).
HERO fuels the leader, PERMA fuels the culture.

In uncertain times, it’s tempting to focus only on keeping things running. But the best leaders I know don’t just focus on their teams—they also build their own resilience, so they have something real to offer others.

Leadership starts from within, but it doesn’t stop there. Your mindset shapes your team. Your resilience builds their trust. Your optimism gives them the confidence to move forward.

As a leader, where is your focus? On keeping yourself steady, or on creating the right environment for others? The truth is, you need both.

And what fuels both? Hope. Not just as an idea—but as a real, biological advantage.

Hope is a Leadership Strategy – and a Neuroscientific Advantage

One thing I know for sure: the best leaders don’t just manage uncertainty—they create hope.

And hope isn’t just a nice leadership philosophy. It’s a biological advantage. Neuroscientific research confirms that hope directly influences brain function in ways that improve motivation, decision-making, and resilience—all critical for leadership in uncertain times.

Hope increases dopamine, which fuels motivation and action-taking—even when the path ahead isn’t clear. Neuroscientist Tali Sharot (University College London) found that anticipating positive outcomes activates the brain’s reward system, particularly the ventral striatum, encouraging people to persist toward goals rather than withdraw in uncertainty (The Optimism Bias, 2011).
It activates the prefrontal cortex, the brain’s control center for rational thinking, planning, and emotional regulation. Richard Davidson (University of Wisconsin–Madison) has shown that people with higher levels of optimism and hope exhibit stronger activity in the left prefrontal cortex, which is linked to problem-solving and emotional resilience (The Emotional Life of Your Brain, 2012).
It calms the amygdala, reducing stress and helping teams stay engaged instead of shutting down under pressure. Research by Lisa Feldman Barrett demonstrates that positive emotions—including hope—reshape brain connectivity and reduce fear-based responses, allowing for more adaptive thinking under stress (How Emotions Are Made, 2017).

Psychologist Shane Lopez, one of the leading experts on hope, argues that:

„Hope isn’t just an emotion. It’s a way of thinking that pushes us to take action and turn obstacles into opportunities.“
(Making Hope Happen, 2013)

Leaders who instil hope aren’t just supporting their teams emotionally—they’re triggering biological processes that enhance resilience, innovation, and performance under pressure.

What I find important: Hope isn’t wishful thinking—it’s a scientifically backed leadership strategy that helps people stay engaged, navigate uncertainty, and move forward with confidence.

Hopeful thought reflects the belief that one can find pathways to desired goals and become motivated to use those pathways.

Charles R. Snyder, The Psychology of Hope

Three Small but Powerful Leadership Shifts

Understanding PERMA is one thing—applying it is another. Here are three small, practical shifts that make a big difference in daily leadership:

From "big wins" to "micro-successes"

Instead of waiting for major milestones, call out small progress daily.

A leader I coach in the healthcare sector started ending team meetings with a “three wins” moment—each person shared one thing that had gone well that day. Simple, fast, but it shifted the team’s mindset from stress to momentum.

From “managing uncertainty” to “leading with clarity”

A simple grounding habit changes everything. One leader I worked with created a “decision pause” ritual: before any big decision, he took five minutes to reflect on his core leadership principles.

That tiny pause helped him make clearer, more values-driven choices instead of getting caught in short-term panic.

From reactive decision-making to proactive grounding

You might not have all the answers—but you can provide clarity on what’s next. A tech executive implemented a “Monday 3-3-3” update:

3 key things that happened last week

3 priorities for this week

3 things to watch on the horizon

It took five minutes, but it gave people a sense of direction, even in chaos.

"The defining characteristic of pessimists is that they tend to believe bad events will last a long time, will undermine everything they do, and are their own fault. Optimists, on the other hand, see bad events as temporary and surmountable."

Martin Seligman, Learned Optimism

Final Thought: Leadership Isn’t About Having All the Answers

Uncertainty isn’t going anywhere—that much is clear. But I’ve seen that the strongest leaders aren’t the ones who try to fight it; they’re the ones who learn to stand steady within it. You don’t need the perfect plan. No one does. But knowing what matters to you as a leader—that makes a difference. In the end, people don’t expect you to have all the answers. They just need to trust that, together, you’ll find a way forward.

Three Questions for Reflection

1. What core principles guide my decisions when there’s no clear right answer?

2. How can I create stability for my team—even when I don’t feel entirely stable myself?

3. Am I focusing on what I can control, or am I wasting energy on what I can’t?

I’ve seen it again and again—hope is contagious. How you lead in uncertain times will shape how your team sees the future. So, the real question is: what kind of leader do you want to be?